Unjustified, premature conclusions as the basis of much of the problems in the world both now and throughout human history

So much of the problems of the world seem to me to start with people coming to premature conclusions about things, essentially speculating, believing that they know things when they DON’T KNOW things. The reason they don’t know the things they think they know or claim they know is because they have not made actual observations before coming to conclusions. Much of the time they don’t even really understand the difference between an observation and a conclusion. They may think they do, but they don’t. I was taught this by a mentor of mine, and with each passing year, I realize more and more how incredibly profound this is, how deep it goes, how pervasive it is, and how it is truly at the basis of much of the wrong thinking in the world both in the present and throughout history. It threads through everything. It’s a very simple observation, but it evades the vast majority of people. It requires no sophisticated knowledge, only the awareness of the difference between an observation and a conclusion. People are absolutely convinced that they know things that in fact, they do not know. For example, it’s honestly very rare that you can truly know what motivates somebody else or why they do things. For God’s sake, most of us don’t know why we do most of the things we do! How could anyone else know?! We need some humility and we need to know our limitations. 

Try this exercise throughout each day: examine your own thoughts or the thoughts of others or what you see in the media and ask yourself: was that an observation or a conclusion? In a high percentage of examples, a person will believe that it’s an observation when in fact, it is a conclusion, whether it’s their own thoughts or the thoughts of others that they are influenced by. For example, look at “the news.“ It’s virtually all conclusions, when in fact news reporting is supposed to be virtually all observations. that’s what news is. Conclusions are editorials. There’s a big difference. A scientific theory is also a conclusion. Any belief needs to be examined, and it needs to be determined whether it is based on observation or whether it is a conclusion. And all conclusions at all times deserve to be challenged and if there is a resistance to the conclusion being challenged, that is the first piece of evidence that conclusion may very well be faulty, most likely because it is based on an inadequate amount of observation. When conclusions are not backed up by enough observation, they are essentially delusions. Replacing observations with conclusions is also a way to manipulate minds, including deceiving yourself! It’s also a sign of laziness and irresponsibility. Rigorous examination and differentiation of observation and conclusions should be a mental discipline that everyone practices every day. It should become a mental habit.

A final point: no matter how many observations a conclusion is based on, every or almost every conclusion is provisional and depends on a never ending process of making observations and challenging each conclusion joyfully, enthusiastically, and non-defensively. The primary joy in these matters must always be in making new observations. No conclusion should be clung to. The joy and validity and virtue of knowledge and wisdom depends on this.